评论：最近一个月美国的银行将可能发生挤兑，股票市场崩溃。自8.20起，黄金的中期趋势已逆转，黄金开始反弹。

　　

　　文章具体意思在文内有翻译，以帮助不懂英文的朋友。转载时请注明来自本博客，不得将本博客的翻译窃为己有。

　　

　　Trading Fall And Spring Market Disasters

　　

　　Roger Wiegand
Editor Trader Tracks Newsletter

　　

　　The Jay & Rog Blog at webeatthestreet.com

　　

　　Aug 21 2009 11:35AM

　　

　　Our technical and fundamental forecasting suggests we get a double whammy in the equities markets throughout the world during fall of 2009 and later-spring-early-summer of 2010. While the fall event could be a nasty one, the June-July, 2010 smash has potential to be infinitely worse.（我们的基本面分析和技术分析提示，2009年秋和2010年春夏之交股票市场将出现双重打击，今秋的打击将使市场一蹶不振，明年6-7月份则可能将市场推向无底洞。）

　　

　　Since our work is used by traders and investors preferring differing cycles, markets and goals, we are discussing these things to offer risk-protection ideas. We all search constantly for new trades to make money. However, our focus here is to strongly warn about loss of capital. This is even more important right now than any new ideas on making money. （我们的任务是帮助投资者赚钱，但这一次，我们强烈警告投资者要避免损失。）

　　

　　Obviously, we’re offering a strong degree of supposition and maybe some flat-out guesstimates. But, after watching the global and more importantly our American political circus and evil events from New York trading houses and banks we’re getting a grip on forthcoming events.

　　

　　To Accept Our Forecast Here's Some Expectations

The Obama Administration is determined to see it through to the bitter end on its reckless spending in Health Care, Cap ‘n’ Trade, TARP, Monetization of U.S. Bond Markets and the continuing saga of Digitizing-Printing gazillions of U.S. Dollars. We see nothing to make this administration change their ways. On Fox News last evening a responsible reporter said, “Obama will crash-and-burn implementing his specious policies going to the bitter end. He is so determined to jump-push everyone off the cliff, we can almost guarantee he's a one term president. 　　

　　We say the president is just a puppet for global bankers and corporate directors. He will not waver, as he will do just as he is directed to do; like all former presidents in recent years. These gang members want centralized power and 100% government control. They will first get chaos and then something far worse if they persist and it goes too far. （奥巴马的胡乱支出正将所有美国人推下悬崖，几乎可以保证他是个只有一届任期的总统。总统只是国际银行家和公司董事们的傀儡，他不能改变已经既定的路线。）

Market pundits, analysts and other alleged brilliant observers romantically believe in and are enamored with the “Green Shoots Theory.” 　　

　　The mindset of these folks is to “make the quarter look good and to hell with the long view.” Unlike their Asian counterparts they think the annual calendar is composed of 90 days. While China has a 100 year plan, USA CEO’s think in terms of weeks and seasons and about how quickly they can escape with millions in stock options before everything takes a suicide swan dive over Obama’s cliff.（很多市场人士和分析师沉醉于复苏的“绿芽”时，美国的CEO们正大肆逃出他们的股票期权，以抢在奥巴马自杀式跳入悬崖之前。）

The same news gang firmly tell us China is hot and doing well and will continue to do so. China will be the savior of the entire economic world as they hold all necessary ingredients for a booming economy. China has some fantastic numbers for growth. 　　

　　China is now in three massive bubbles: (1) Real Estate (2) The Stock Market, And, (3) A Pyramid of Debt. When this baby blows, and it will very soon, they will lead the world over the edge and into the abyss. After all, on the daily trading clock, they are first up after the Aussies. Chinese exports are dead and their organic growth is organ-donations-seizures-sales. They are toast just like the rest of the world. （同样的好消息还有中国的经济蒸蒸日上，中国将成为全球经济的大救星，有着调节经济的所有佐料。事实上，中国的房地产、股市和债务金字塔是三个巨型泡沫，即将爆裂，并将导致全球经济追入深渊。）

　　

　　A laundry list of phony stats including unemployment, inventories, consumer sentiment, GDP reports, and solidity in banks and corporations coupled with Washington’s abomination policies will save our collective rear ends.

　　

　　National USA unemployment is 20% not 10%. And, it’s going to get a whole lot worse. Inventories were temporarily sold-off to the bone demanding more short term production. Who is going to buy this newer junk Who has credit No one except the money-printing government and that ends sooner rather than later. （失业率、存货、消费者信心、GDP、银行和企业是一连串造假的统计数据，除了政府印钱之外，没有人在借贷。）

The Iraqi-Afghan War is winding down and the newer, spreading Afghan war is under control. 　　

　　Yesterday more violence erupted in Iraq and destroyed free elections in Afghanistan as the rebels wrecked 800 voting places. This regional mess has gotten worse not better and was an ill-advised adventure at best. We say the USA and their compatriots walk away just like in Vietnam.（美国将象离开越南那样离开阿富汗。）

　　

　　The Middle Eastern conflicts are subsiding as the Administration’s newer policies are working.

　　

　　Our president has succeeded in destroying relations with Israel, while pandering to Middle Eastern criminals responsible for most of these problems over centuries. Don’t take sides here just look at the facts. For years the USA has Kow-Towed to the Shieks to ensure the flow of oil. It sure worked well didn’t it Witness 9/11 and about 100 other similar examples. The only thing these folks understand is brute force and cruelty. This is why WW III is coming to a theater near you about 2012 when global economic forces instigate new world war for power and oil. （美国破坏了与以色列的关系迎合中东地区的恶棍。2012年经济力量将推动争取霸权和石油的第三次世界大战爆发。）

　　

　　Energy prices along with supply and demand figures tell us this mess is over and we can relax.

　　

　　(See answer for number six above).

　　

　　Global Warming is a huge threat to the world therefore we must crush the broken USA economy with new reckless tree-hugger spending, or else we all go up in smoke by next Sunday afternoon.

　　

　　Goromania and Global Warming are just another tremendous scam to create a problem and make the taxpayers pay for it. The next ice age is scheduled for 2040. These dolts in their infinite wisdom missed seeing-counting a North Pole iceberg the size of Greenland. （全球气候变暖是巨大的骗局，下一个冰河世纪在2040年到来，这些蠢猪忽略了一个事实－－北极的格陵兰岛的冰山规模在扩大。）

　　

　　While the states within the USA are struggling with dire economic problems right now, the president says no help for you and gives the TARP billions to bankers who just park it to replenish their broken balance sheets. Since those bankers are now made whole, of course all is well and they will go lend like crazy.

　　

　　Bankers are sitting on all the cash as they need to stay alive. They are not lending it to anyone as the good credits won’t borrow and the bad credits can’t pay it back. So, the crooked banksters just luxuriate in their new-found stolen taxpayer wealth waiting for the next trading-scam-opportunity. No loans, no business, broken consumers, hello depression. （借贷和商业活动停滞，消费者破产，信用好的不愿借款，信用差的还不起贷款。你好，萧条）

　　

　　While the USA GDP and that measure of other nations have entered points of no return, we can blunder our way out of this mess by printing more dollars and bonds while persuading non-USA countries to keep giving us credit and buying our valueless paper.

　　

　　Excuse me but the Asians and others are frantically working to shed USA paper and avoid buying more to escape and remain solvent. Our splendiferous leaders like Geitner, Paulson, and Chopper Ben were-are passing new paper debt from one pocket to the other. These idiots told us they’ve done this already to the tune of $300 Billion and yes they won’t do it any more. Quick get a shovel or my shoes are covered in a flash. （美国无限制地印钱，非美国家将逃离美债。）

　　

　　Since Germany is the economic engine of Euroland and they have all under control they will lead us out of this desolation along with China as we all march forward to the old paradigms.

　　

　　We mentioned where China is headed. Germany was smarter and has less public debt but they are still stuck in the socialist paradigm and worse, their export customers are vanishing. They fall too, but just not as hard as the rest. （依靠欧元区的经济引擎德国和中国将美国拉出底谷是自欺欺人。）

　　

　　Since the food and grain futures have sold down of late, there is plenty of food to go around and don’t worry about having only a one month corn-bin supply, or our suspect threatening weather.

　　

　　The world is headed for a food-drought induced shortage disaster. Once again Pollyannas speak of this week, or this month and cannot even see the intermeditate view of the next 18 months. Yes, prices fell with the current no-spendy depression. However, people have to eat and they have to eat every day. The bigger picture spells a disaster of wasted water, grain, under-production and major shortages. Yet, Washington promotes corn-ethanol. Idiots. （粮食将短缺，美国的白痴一样的乙醇计划更恶化粮食短缺。）

　　

　　Obviously since food and grain markets are under control other growers are doing well.

　　

　　(See number 12).

　　

　　And of course if this is true, clean water is available in prodigious amounts for years to come.

　　

　　China has a major, major clean water emergency. 1/3rd of China is fried with no water. Parts of the USA are going the same way. The Great Lakes were historically low the past few years and Atlanta’s public water supply was literally down to days remaining last year. Now in California, a veggie-growing area the size of Rhode Island has been water-deprived by tree huggers to save a two inch minnow that the birds will eat anyway. This is a major blow to veggie growers, employees and consumers of that produce. Good clean water is increasingly scarce and expensive. Intelligent ideas from government are most scarce of all. （清洁水越来越短缺。）

　　

　　The auto industry is now back on track as the government is providing free down payments to unqualified car buyers with its “Cash for Clunkers Program.” Naturally, this idea is proceeding smoothly as government failed to pay the dealers for incurring that debt in hopes of being repaid.

　　

　　Government Motors will crash and burn after the Cash for Clunkers Program screws the dealers with non-payments or long-delayed payments. Did those dealers actually believe they would be reimbursed by the Obama administration Who will buy a $40,000 electric car that stops after 100 miles A consumer with no credit Ford and the Asians are the last men standing. They are all losing money despite the news. Count the debts and their sales and you’ll get the real picture. （旧车换现金不能挽救汽车业。）

　　

　　The USA service economy composed of laundry services, convenience store employment, grass cutting, sewing, in-home child care, government employment, and taking-out each others trash should really make those green shoots bloom to the sky.

　　

　　USA real GDP to debt crossed over the River Of No Return above 6%. Now it’s at 12% waiting for the crash. I’m sure we will all pay our $1500 per month health care bills from lawn cutting earnings.

　　

　　The new health care program allegedly gives free services to 50 million non-payers and it won’t cost us any more money. In fact the cost of health care will go down. We’ll make those naughty insurance companies pay and that’s where we get the cash, along with some new taxes of course.

　　

　　First of all, among the 50mm described, only 23mm are poor and deprived of any insurance. The rest don’t want it, and prefer to spend money on better investments and bills. Next, even if 23mm were dumped into a new system, where are those doctors and nurses to administer this care No where. They can’t be found as they didn’t even enter medical school. Come back in ten years-maybe.

　　

　　This new health care plan will be a dandy as we will find new medical staff fully-trained with years of experience to service those 50,000,000 million new patients.

　　

　　(See number 17 above). Also, would you spend $250,000 on an 11 year medical education when you see where this national mess is headed Hell no! Go work at Goldman Sachs where the average employee can earn $750,000 per year trading and drinking coffee. Just graduate from high school, understand how to bet and play cards and find a Goldman insider to refer you for a trading job.

　　

　　California just got cash from someone so their troubles are over and gosh, those guys are even paying back their IOU’s due in September; one month early! They must be all economically healed again.

　　

　　Who knows where they got the money It doesn’t matter as they will not pay it back anyway. Further, this state returns to its prior emergencies in 30-60 days. The rental trucks are going one way-out of California just like from the Midwest rust-bucket states. After California goes BK watch for New York, New Jersey, and Florida. Maybe Nevada beats them all and files first. （加州进入30-60天的紧急状态，加州破产后紧接的是纽约、新泽西、佛罗里达，内华达可能在他们之前破产。）

　　

　　The new CEO of AIG told us this morning during a Bloomberg exclusive report he will pay back the billions borrowed from taxpayers and make that company whole as we all dance happily into the economic sunset together.

　　

　　Since personal and corporate buyers of insurance are going broke and canceling policies right and left, this certainly seems like a logical plan. AIG will be borrowing more TARP funds and they could hit the BK drain anyway. （AIG的客户在破产，AIG将介入更多TARP资金但仍破产。）

Naturally, the top dictators of our world from North Korea, the Middle East (take your pick) along with Chavez, Fido and other South American Leader-Guys And Gals will not foment trouble for the USA but instead buy into Obama’s fig leaf, Neville Chamberlain appeasement strategy. Wow! Maybe KGB’s Putin will come to the White House with flowers instead of missiles. 　　

　　The good news here is whoever among this dictator menagerie makes a naughty move first, will be hammered into the dust by the most powerful military in the world-the USA. And, Israel will not standby waiting for Obama’s blessing to attack Iran. It’s probably all over before he wakes up for breakfast.

　　

　　The industrial rust-bucket Midwest will regain its former employment glory with millions of new higher-paid manufacturing jobs as in the “North Shall Rise Again.”

　　

　　We suggest that like the City of Detroit, now returning to the woodsy, agrarian wild, so will the rest of the Midwest. People are leaving the state for work at lower pay. Never again will the Midwest contain that manufacturing might of the 1890’s to 1960’s. The American auto industry has moved to non-union locations in the south and out of the country. They cannot afford Obama wages and benefits. We noticed this week the very high class University of Michigan is extending more student loans to fill their colleges. Those kids do not have the money for tuition, room and board. If the U of M did not help them there would be lots of empty seats at the U this fall.

　　

　　Consumers will find work and since they are 70% of the economy we can for sure expect them to come-on-down with billions in new spending for Chinese junk supporting USA retailers and Asian exports forever.

　　

　　Watch for a major back-to-school fall retailing disaster. Unemployment will rise for at least another three
years, or even longer. Jobless consumers can’t buy anything. They get food stamps and utility shut-
offs. Asian exporters are finished. They have no western buyers for their stuff and the Asian organic
home-grown consumer is just a myth.

　　

　　If you believe these fantasies you’ll believe anything. We’re in a world of hurt but this does not mean we go down with Obama’s ship. Here are some ideas for preserving your property and your capital.

　　

　　-Get ruthless in elimination of personal debt. Go through your expenses and check book culling out and stopping as much fluff as possible. （将债务清零，量入为出。）

　　

　　-Own physical gold and silver. If you have a slim budget start with one silver coin and work your way up from there. （拥有实物金银，如果你的预算拮据，从积攒银币开始。）

　　

　　-Fill-up the pantry at home. Store some water. （填满储藏室，储存清洁水。）

　　

　　-Keep 30-90 days of cash in your hand in the house. （保持够30-90天用的现金。）

　　

　　-Own a generator. The grid is coming apart at age 50, or higher. There is no money for repairs. （自备发电机，电网已有50年历史，现在没钱来修。）

　　

　　-Sell your cars and get a pick-up truck. Pay cash if possible.

　　

　　-Plant a garden.

　　

　　-Network with friends and neighbors to help each other. Give to charity to the best of your ability.（与邻居建立社区互助，以自己最大的能力给他人慈善。）

　　

　　-Get out of the stock market except for precious metals shares and trades. Most all paper trades are open to being wrecked by an imploding system. （清仓股票，贵金属股票除外。）

　　

　　-Good shorts are major stock markets, retailers, the US Government, any government programs, real estate and its taxes, urban area living, and trusting the general news.

　　

　　Financials crashed in fall 2008 with Lehman. Recovery began with TARP May, 2009: During this month of August we have more of a dead cat bounce ahead with a big smash in Mid-September. While precious metals and their shares are off this August 20, 2009, for the intermediate term (next 90 days) the trend reverses and moves to rallies.

　　

　　2008年秋雷曼破产，金融崩溃，2009年由于TARP资金经济有所复苏。今年8月较多的死猫跳反弹将在9月中旬被粉碎。8月20日贵金属及其股票开始起飞，在中期（近90天）来看，其趋势开始逆转转向反弹。

相关文章 社科：金融危机下的资本主义制度危机国际金融危机的深层思考——金融危机预警机制初探清湖渔夫：全球性货币战争的时代特征从CDS的角度看08危机真相不是金融危机是资本主义的系统性危机美国次贷重创重临或达730亿美元窟窿金融危机远未成为历史经济危机的逻辑（下篇）——从生产过剩到金融过剩的危机经济危机的逻辑——从生产过剩到金融过剩的危机吕永岩：“富外穷内”国际板未面世便现魔影张庭宾：美国最危险之地——利率衍生品巨额美债何去何从