tigergoo评论：Roger Wiegand 在《秋天有巨大的经济灾难》一文中提到美股存在清零的可能，而且说是他的一位顶尖的投资界好友告诉他的，不知道是不是Ceri Shepherd。

　　

　　标普500市盈率723倍

　　

　　2009年07月30日03:59新浪财经

　　

　　导语：29日著名投资人塞里·谢泼德(Ceri Shepherd)发表评论文章称，标普500目前的运营市盈率为22.87倍，但其告市盈率高达723倍！认为在这种情况下，恶性通货膨胀和股市暴跌是市场恢复正常估值的必经之路。

　　

　　根据历史经验，标普500指数合理的市盈率为14倍，熊市底部市盈率平均值为7倍，牛市顶部市盈率为21倍。

　　

　　标普的市盈率有两种计算方法。第一种是根据运营利润(Oprating Earnings)计算出来的。这种计算方法基本上是将所有的坏消息剔除掉了，因此这种伪造的市盈率与现实关系甚小，只是在CNBC和华尔街分析师的虚幻国度里具有合理性。另一种市盈率是根据告利润(Reported Earnings)或真实利润计算出来的，所谓告利润就是上市公司每个季度通过10Q表向证交会告的真实数据。

　　

　　这种告利润才是唯一的现实。在经济繁荣的时候，这两种虚幻的和现实的盈利通常是非常接近的，而在每一个泡沫破裂之后二者却会出现巨大的背离。举例来说，上一次泡沫破裂的时候，按告利润计算出来的市盈率为46倍，这也是有史以来最高的市盈率！与此同时，当时的运营市盈率为29倍。

　　

　　现在，53%的上市公司都已经披露了2009年第二季度的业绩，计算出的运营市盈率令人惊讶，居然“只有”22.87倍。因此在CNBC和华尔街看来，标普500估值相当合理，所以让我们忘记现实、不顾一切地买进吧！不幸的是，现实告诉我们，现在的告市盈率达到了令人匪夷所思的723倍。我再重复一下，是723倍，而此前的历史最高值为46。

　　

　　尽管市盈率高到令人难以置信，标普500指数还在上涨，而且涨势很猛，这只能说明以下几个问题。

　　

　　第一，标普500的市场参与者真的非常愚蠢。如果我们通过SPY这样的代理工具买进标普500的股份，需要723年才能收回投资，因为你所支付的价格是真实盈利的723倍。在这样荒谬的估值水平下，巴菲特还建议普通投资者在这时候买入股票，我们凭什么说他是一个价值投资者呢？

　　

　　第二，标普500的市场参与者宁愿采用将所有问题撇在一边的运营利润市盈率，宁愿忽视现实，因为生活在幻想中要容易得多。

　　

　　第三，那些还没有公布财的标普500成份股将会公布真正惊天动地的业绩，因此最终标普500指数的告市盈率将会再次回到14倍左右的合理水平。

　　

　　第四，股市是前瞻性的，它预测美国要出现有史以来最恶性的通货膨胀。这意味着市盈率将会回到历史平均水平。标普500指数的成份股都是跨国公司，因此它们会产生大量的外币收益。我们来看一个麦当劳的例子。我们假设麦当劳在巴黎卖出了一份食品，赚得1欧元利润。方便起见，我们假设这就是他们上个季度的所有盈利，并假设麦当劳上市的股票只有1股，最后再假设1欧元兑换1美元。这样一来，如果麦当劳的股价是14美元，那么其股票的告市盈率就是14倍。

　　

　　如果联储拚命印钞拯救华尔街和政府过度支出的行为导致恶性通胀，那么汇率就会下降，假设现在变成1欧元兑换5美元。让我们假设麦当劳还是卖一顿饭和赚1欧元利润。现在麦当劳的10Q告上就有5美元盈利。这样每股收益就是5美元。这时候麦当劳股票股价为70美元是合理的，因为其告市盈率仍为14倍。

　　

　　麦当劳还是赚取1欧元利润，但是由于美元的购买力遭到恶性通货膨胀的侵蚀，其股价就能够直线飙升。

　　

　　第五，标普500指数即将暴跌98%，这样其市盈率就能够回归到14倍的历史市盈率了。

　　

　　第六，政府、联储和华尔街在拚命印钞或者买进标普500指数期货合约，从而让市场处于当前的价位，市盈率处于惊人的水平。

　　

　　在上面六种情况中，第一种意味着你必须是一个极端的长线投资者，你投资的时间窗口是723年。第二种情况下，由于华尔街的宣传机器一贯地叫嚷“好于预期”的幻想的运营利润，我估计那些幼稚的人暂时会根据这一“建议”来买进标普500。

　　

　　第三种情况事实上是不可能发生的，就像华尔街不可能做到一次不撒谎那样。

　　

　　这样我们就来到了可能性比较大的第四、第五和第六种情况。我个人感觉我们将来迎来通胀风暴，用通胀来蒸发所有债务，使其来到一个可控的水平，因为西方世界的消费者、企业和政府都已经一文不名了，而且我们还面临着婴儿潮一代人退休问题上彻底的金融崩溃。一名侦探通常会研究罪犯背后的动机。政府有无数的动机来制造通胀，以此减轻债务问题。

　　

　　然而为了拯救标普500和恢复神智健全，通胀是有必要的，而其对美元购买力的摧毁也必将是史无前例的，因此我感觉在低成交量的假期过后，从这个秋季开始标普500还将出现第五种情况下的大跌，不会到98%，但也是非常大的幅度，最后的目的地很有可能是创出新低。

　　

　　不论最终出现那一种情况，我可以保证一点：必须要发生大的事情，标普500指数723倍的告市盈率是不可持续的。这个所谓的“事情”可以是政府操纵市场，可以是恶性通胀，也可以是市场暴跌，或者三者兼有，但必须要发生点什么。

　　

　　由于必须靠美元贬值才能让标普500指数恢复至健全的市盈率，我们相信现在黄金和白银是真正值得买进的投资品。

　　

　　原文：

　　

　　The historic rule of thumb is that the S&P500 is correctly valued with a price/earnings or PE ratio of 14, the market normally hits the area of 7 at true bear market bottoms, and 21 at bull market tops.

　　

　　There are 2 types of PE ratio that S&P produce the first ratio is called the OPERATING Earnings. This is basically the PE ratio calculated with all the bad news stripped out, it is the make believe PE ratio that has very little to do with reality and only has any validity in the fantasy land of CNBC and Wall Street analysts. The other ratio are as REPORTED or real earnings, the giveaway is in the name as these are the earnings that are actually reported to the SEC via the 10Q form each quarter.

　　

　　These reported earnings are the only reality, as another giveaway is that during every boom these 2 ratios fantasy and reality actually close up they become very close in value, and during every bust we get huge divergences. For example during the last bust the highest Reported PE ratio recorded was 46 which was also the highest PE ratio ever recorded in history! At this same time, the operating PE was 29.

　　

　　Today with 53% of companies' results reported for the 2nd quarter 2009 the Operating PE is surprise, surprise "only" at 22.87. So according to CNBC and Wall Street the S&P 500 is fairly valued so please ignore reality, live in denial and BUY!!! Unfortunately the reality shown by the as reported PE is a truly mind blowing 723. I repeat 723, the previous all time high was 46.

　　

　　Despite this incredible PE ratio the S&P500 has been rising in value and rising strongly, this can only mean a few things.

　　

　　1 S&P 500 market participants are really very stupid, by buying an S&P500 share via a proxy instrument such as the SPY it will take them 723 years to get there money back. As the price you pay will be 723 times the earnings actually generated. Why is Warren Buffet a renowned value investor, recommending that the ordinary person now buys stocks when at this point they have such a ridiculous historical valuation

　　

　　2 S&P500 market participants prefer to use the fantasy all overheads striped out operating earnings PE ratio, and simply ignore reality as it is far easier to live in denial.

　　

　　3 The remaining S&P 500 constituents who have not reported yet are going to produce truly knockout earnings, so that the final as reported S&P500 PE ratio will once again make sense and be back in line at about 14.

　　

　　4 The market is a forward looking mechanism and is forecasting the mother of all inflations. This would mean that the PE ratio would close back towards more historic norms. The S&P 500 constituent companies are multinationals, thereby generating foreign earnings. Lets use McDonalds' as an example if they sell a meal in Paris and make 1 Euro profit and for ease of illustration assume that is all the profit they make that quarter and lets also assume they only have 1 share traded. Finally the exchange rate is 1 Euro = 1 Dollar. It means they now have $1 earnings to report on there quarterly 10Q. So that single McDonalds share would be fairly valued at $14 as it produces $1 of earnings, the McDonalds share would then have an as reported PE ratio of 14.

　　

　　If because of massive inflation caused by the FED,s reckless money printing to bail out Wall Streets recent madness and the Governments excessive spending. The exchange rate slipped so that now 1 Euro = 5 Dollars, and lets assume that Mcdonalds sell the same meal and make the same 1 Euro profit. They now have $5 profit to report on there 10Q . The earnings for the one share would be $5. So that single McDonalds share would be fairly valued at $70 as it produces $5 of earnings, the McDonalds share would still have an as reported PE ratio of 14.

　　

　　It is all, a game of smoke and mirrors, the talking heads on CNBC would be talking about a blow out earnings quarter at McDonalds, Goldman Sachs would reiterate there BUY recommendation, the CEO of Mcdonalds would have a huge performance bonus paid for his Fantastic work.

　　

　　Only slight problem Mcdonalds still only made 1 Euro profit, the share price moved radically higher only because the measuring unit the US $, has actually received a massive deflation in its purchasing power.

　　

　　5 The S&P 500 is due an imminent crash in the region of 98% which would be necessary so that it is back in line with the historic PE ratio of 14.

　　

　　6 The Government, Fed, and Wall Street are printing money and buying S&P500 futures contracts to keep the market at this level and PE ratio be damned.

　　

　　Looking at the 6 scenarios above, Number 1 applies if you are an extremely long term investor with a time window for your investment of 723 years. As regards number 2 the talking heads AKA Wall Street propaganda machine constantly hammer the "better than expected" fantasy operating earnings, I guess the terminally naïve amongst us will trade the S&P500 LONG based on this "advice".

　　

　　Number 3 is simply not going to happen about as likely as Wall Street coming clean and actually telling the truth for once.

　　

　　Which leads us to the far more likely scenarios of 4,5 and 6. Personally I feel we are due a blizzard of inflation to inflate away all the debts to more manageable levels as the western worlds consumers, corporate,s and Governments are all tapped out, and we still have the complete financial debacle of the boomers retirement to face. A detective always looks for a motive behind any crime. The Government has plenty of motives to try and inflate the debt problem away.

　　

　　However to save the S&P500 and restore sanity, the inflation required and therefore by definition destruction of the purchasing power of the Federal Reserve note the US dollar will have to be truly historic, so I feel probably starting this autumn after the low volume holiday period we have further declines in the S&P 500 as per scenario 5, not 98% but a large decline from present levels and very probably the eventual destination is new lows.

　　

　　At opportune times they will intervene to "support" the market, so much for the principle of the free market. First rule to recognize regarding the supposed free markets = THERE ARE NO FREE MARKETS ANYMORE, simply degrees of manipulation. It is also extremely difficult to tell if JP MorganChase and Goldman Sachs are actually public companies anymore or simply extensions of the United States Federal Government, the relationships seem beyond cosy.

　　

　　Which ever scenario eventually plays out, I can promise you one thing something has to give and quickly as a reported PE ratio of 723 on the S&P 500 is simply not sustainable. It is going to take manipulation, huge inflation or a major correction, or a combination of all 3 but something has to give.

　　

　　Because of the required Dollar devaluation to hold the S&P 500 flagship index together, with the restoration of a sane PE ratio, we believe that Gold and Silver are the true real buys at this point.

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